U.S. shoppers have already spent $8.6B billion online so far on Black Friday (up through 3:30 pm Pacific time), which represents 9.4% growth year-over-year (YoY), according to Adobe Analytics.
Adobe previously set a forecast of 8.3% YoY growth for the day. Adobe expects that when the final tally is in, consumers will spend have spent $11.7 billion to $11.9 billion today, setting a new Black Friday record online. I was glad to cooperate, as I spent more than $1,000 on an Asus ROG Swift 32-inch 4K OLED Gaming Monitor today.
The strongest hour of online spending so far has been between the 7 a.m. Pacific and 11 a.m. hours. The spend is expected to dial up again between the 5 p.m. and 7 p.m. Pacific hours today. These two spikes are different from year’s past, when spending ramped up predominantly in the evening hours.
The strong spending so far has been driven by discounts that were deeper than Adobe initially forecasted.
Today on Black Friday, consumers are seeing great deals for electronics (up to 29% off listed price) as well as toys (28%), apparel (25%), televisions (24%), computers (23%), appliances (20%), furniture (19%), and sporting goods (19%). Discounts are expected to remain at elevated levels throughout the weekend before Cyber Monday (see below).
In an Adobe survey of over 1,000 U.S. consumers (conducted Nov. 2025), 50% of respondents plan to shop for apparel and accessories online on Black Friday, followed by toys (40%), computers and electronics (36%), books and digital content like movies (25%), health and personal care (20%), and home appliances (17%).
The top 15 hot sellers (not ranked in order) on Black Friday so far include televisions, Nintendo Switch 2, Apple Airpods 4, Oura ring 4, e-readers, kitchen storage and Tupperware, jewelry, gift cards, Fisher-Price Laugh and Learn DJ table, plush toys, fragrance sets, KitchenAid stand mixer, washers and dryers, bicycles and basketball hoops.
Additional insights for Black Friday:
- Shoppers lean on generative AI: On Black Friday, AI traffic to U.S. retail sites (measured by shoppers clicking on a link) is expected to increase by 600% YoY. In Adobe’s survey, nearly half of respondents (48%) have used or plan to use AI for online shopping this season. Deal finding is the most popular use case, followed by product research and recommendations.
- Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) usage ramps up: BNPL is expected to drive $761.8 million in online spend for Black Friday, up 11% YoY. This would outpace Thanksgiving where BNPL grew by 4.1% YoY (at $447.7 million). A large majority of BNPL purchases are happening on a mobile device as well, at a staggering 82.4% share so far this holiday season. In Adobe’s survey, consumers are mostly likely to use BNPL for electronics, apparel, toys, and furniture purchases.
- Mobile continues to dominate: After a record-setting mobile shopping day on Thanksgiving (61.6% of online sales), consumers continued to hit buy on smaller screens: 58.6% of online sales so far on Black Friday have come through a mobile device (vs. desktop), driving $5.1 billion (up 11.3% YoY). Last year on Black Friday, mobile share came in at 55%.
“Adobe surveyed over 1,000 U.S. consumers and nearly half believe the best deals this season will come on Black Friday, pushing many to hit buy on products before Cyber Monday,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights, in a statement. “Given the strong spending so far today, we anticipate the final tally for online shopping on Black Friday will exceed our initial forecast.”
Weekend preview (November 29 and November 30)
For the upcoming weekend, Adobe anticipates consumers will spend $5.5 billion on Saturday, Nov. 29 (up 3.8% YoY) and $5.9 billion on Sunday, Nov. 30 (up 5.4% YoY) as discounts continue to remain elevated. Mobile shopping is expected to remain strong, set to drive a 58% share of online sales for the upcoming weekend (across both days), representing $6.6 billion (up 6.5% YoY).
Consumers can expect discounts to remain elevated throughout this upcoming weekend for electronics (peaking at 29% off listed price).
There will also be great bargains in toys (27%), apparel (25%), computers (23%), televisions (23%), applicance (19%), sporting goods (18%), and furniture (18%). However, consumers will see the best deals on Cyber Monday for electronics specifically, with discounts peaking 30% off listed price, as well as apparel (26%) and computers (24%).
Hot sellers this upcoming weekend are expected to include laptops, portable speakers, PlayStation 5 consoles, sweatpants and hoodies, power tools, vacuum cleaners, necklaces, Gabby’s Dollyhouse: The Movie, LEGO sets, Wicket dolls, Toniebox sets, air fryers, Ray-Ban Meta glasses, cookware sets and artificial Christmas trees.
Cyber Monday forecast
Cyber Monday is set to be the biggest online shopping day of the season—and year—driving $14.2 billion (up 6.3% YoY). Cyber Week (the 5-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday) is expected to drive 17.2% of overall spend this season, at $43.7 billion (up 6.3% YoY).