The DeanBeat: The $2B mobile game and other bold predictions for 2015

The time has come again to make some wildly inaccurate but reasonably informed predictions about the future of games. Each year, I go through this exercise to show not only what might unfold in the next year, but also to spell out how difficult and unpredictable it is to run a gaming business. I have an awfully hard time getting things right. But I write so much about the business, and I hear so many predictions, I figure it’s always a good exercise and only fair to make my own guesses. It’s also a good way to look at the past year and take a reality check on the state of gaming.

Last year, I predicted that Sony and Microsoft would be in a dead heat in the console war. But on a global basis, Sony has sold an estimated 16.6 million PlayStation 4s sold to date, or 48.7 percent of the new console market share, while Microsoft is at 9.4 million, or 27.8 percent of the total. These figures come from VGChartz and should be taken with a grain of salt, since VGChartz aggregates sources and then takes a guess at worldwide market share. But assuming they’re in the ballpark, I was off on my Sony prediction, as the company clearly pulled ahead.